Looking to quell notions that Apple is making significant gains in market share, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer recently pointed to February sales data that showed a year-over-year Mac and iPod sales decline of 16 percent.
"Apple gained about one point, but now I think the tide has really turned back the other direction," Ballmer told BusinessWeek at The McGraw-Hill Companies’ 2009 Media Summit. "The economy is helpful. Paying an extra $500 for a computer in this environment—same piece of hardware—paying $500 more to get a logo on it? I think that's a more challenging proposition for the average person than it used to be."
One month of a year-over-year decline does not, however, signal a changing tide. Last February, Apple had a significant spike in sales due to the radically thin MacBook Air, while this February was marked by users waiting for hardware updates that didn't materialize until March. With all the new hardware, it's worth waiting to see March's numbers before making any serious prognostication.
Further, even if the 16 percent decrease were to hold for the entire quarter, Apple would still be looking at selling about 2 million Macs. That should translate to about $7.6 billion in revenue for the quarter, which is in line with the company's guidance to investors.
That still doesn't take into account the fact that Macs are not "the same piece of hardware," despite being architecturally similar. Apple's design, integration, and Mac OS X are differentiating features that consumers consider valuable. That's why Macs command higher average selling prices and Apple continues to make money selling its hardware.
Of course, Ballmer has been wrong before, so it's worth taking his statements with a jumbo-sized grain of salt.
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